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Browse the World Service episodes
The first 10 episodes broadcast on the BBC World Service were described in the programmes as being "Special Editions". From episode 11, this tag was dropped. Episode 1 (Special Edition) (13/01/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00msxhx Episode 2 (Special Edition) (20/01/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00mwzcl Episode 3 (Special Edition) (28/01/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00n1j58 World's largest cities: Which is the world's largest city? It is discovered that this is not easy to state as the definition of a city is hard to pin down. It demonstrates the need for careful definitions of anything you are trying to measure. Episode 4 (Special Edition) (04/02/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00n6z6s Episode 5 (Special Edition) (11/02/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00nftfl Famine: How is a famine defined? The United Nations use the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC scale) which defines famine as being at point five on a one to five scale. However, point four is still classified as a humanitarian emergency. This highlights the difference that can exist between technical definitions of a word and its meaning in general language and can cause confusion in media reports. Episode 6 (Special Edition) (18/02/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00np2r3 Accuracy of the groundhog: Each year on 2nd February in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, Groundhog Day takes place. The groundhog predicts whether or not an early spring will occur by whether or not he "see his shadow". An analysis of the accuracy of the predictions is discussed. Episode 7 (Special Edition) (25/02/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00nwqrh Using subsets of survey data - a cautionary tale: A report concerning an internet survey which was reported as showing that the majority of Syrians supported President Assad during civil unrest. It emerges that the survey was actually of people from a much wider area than just Syria but the way in which the survey had been reported meant that media attention was drawn to an analysis of the sub-population of those that lived in Syria. These numbered less than 100 people but the results from these were reported as being for the whole country. It is mentioned that in such polls, sample sizes of less than 1000 are considered inadvisable. The opportunity to calculate a confidence interval is not taken up in the programme but could be done. Working hours in Europe: Data on the number of hours worked by adults in different European countries has different rankings depending on whether you look at hours worked per adult or per working adult or if you take part/full-time and self-employed working into account. The rankings are different again if you take productivity into account. Episode 8 (Special Edition) (03/03/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00p34zj Dollar a day: A "dollar a day" has become a well-known measure of poverty. The history of this measure is discussed along with its usefulness for reducing poverty now and in the future. Episode 9 (Special Edition) (10/03/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00p98ms Episode 10 (Special Edition) (17/03/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00ph369 Risk of death: A study into the effect of eating meat on life expectancy was reported in several inappropriate ways, including a suggestion that eating mean increased the risk of death. David Spiegelhalter gives a correct interpretation of the findings of this study, in terms that are understandable by non-experts. Also discussed are issues concerning how the public should interpret frequent stories about food and risks to health, including those studies that appear to contradict others. The issue of whether cause and effect can be inferred from these studies is also discussed. Episode 11 (24/03/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00pp577 Episode 12 (31/03/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00q876m Hans Rosling, Gapminder and Statistics for different countries: Hans Rosling is interviewed about the statistics associated with developing countries. He is forthright in making the point that data for individual countries need to be considered rather than for groups of countries and that the label "developing" applied to countries may be misused. Episode 13 (07/04/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00q8900 Episode 14 (14/04/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00qdrqw Episode 15 (21/04/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00qpj9l Episode 16 (28/04/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00qy7qm Episode 17 (05/05/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00r49g3 Episode 18 (12/05/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00rc9df Episode 19 (19/05/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00rrvw9 Episode 20 (26/05/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00s473m Average wages in Australia and the UK: The average wage in Australia is apparently much higher than in the UK. The possibility that this is due to different calculation methods is investigated. The effect of exchange rates and prices are also discussed. Episode 21 (02/06/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00sdr9m Estimating the number of images of the Queen: An attempt is made to estimate the number of images of the Queen that have ever been created. The various sources used are discussed as are issues about estimating the unestimable. Episode 22 (09/06/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00sw2w4 Daniel Kahnemann and Fast Thinking: An interview with Daniel Kahnemann discusses "Fast Thinking" - immediate, "gut" responses to probability questions. These responses are often wrong and more detailed consideration of the known facts would lead to different responses. Examples are given, including probability calculations. Episode 23 (16/06/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00t4ynz Calculating probabilities of coincidences: A discussion of the probabilities of coincidental meetings, including the example from the Radio 4 broadcast of 04/05/2012 and other examples and calculations. See also Radio 4 Series 25 Episode 3 (04/05/2012). Episode 24 (23/06/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00tdzyz Episode 25 (30/06/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00trs0f Adjusting for inflation when considering film box office takings: The success of films are often judged by their takings at the box office. But inflation needs to be taken into account when comparing new films with old. Examples are given. Dying on your birthday: A report suggested a notable increased chance of dying on your birthday rather than on any other particular day of the year. It is suggested that this effect may be due to errors in the data with the same date incorrectly being used for both dates of birth and death. Episode 26 (07/07/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00txv33 World cannabis smoking league table: In a table ranked by the proportion of adults smoking cannabis, Palau came top with a figure far in excess of any other country. It appears that this result may be due to how the data were collected. The importance of making sure figures "make sense" is discussed as is the importance of giving indications of how much uncertainty is associated with estimates. Probability and the Higgs boson: The discovery of the Higgs Boson was announced because scientists had achieved a "5 sigma" result. An explanation of what this means is given in more understandable terms. See also Radio 4 Series 24 Episode 3 (16/12/2011) and Radio 4 Series 27 Episode 6 (28/12/2012). Episode 27 (14/07/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00vbzrt Episode 28 (21/07/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00vjqx2 Episode 29 (28/07/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00vtkct Episode 30 (04/08/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00w2s4q Episode 31 (12/08/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00wcwx7 Episode 32 (18/08/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00wq5n8 Episode 33 (25/08/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00x24qt Episode 34 (01/09/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00x8hn0 Episode 35 (08/09/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00msxfl Episode 36 (15/09/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00xvb7w International comparisons of crime statistics: NaÃ¯ve comparisons of crime statistics from different countries portrays Sweden as having very poor statistics concerning rape. The perils of comparing crime statistics across nations are discussed with emphasis on the definitions used and the way the data are collected. Episode 37 (22/09/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00y2wtw Episode 38 (29/09/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00yc3qs Misreporting the number of cod in the North Sea: Newspapers were reporting that the number of cod in the North Sea were down to extremely small and implausible numbers. An explanation of how these reports came out is given along with information on how this sort of estimation is done. Episode 39 (06/10/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00ymn8j Nate Silver and predicting the US 2012 Presidential Election outcome: A brief biography is given of Nate Silver who came to prominence by forecasting baseball players' performance and the outcome of the 2008 Presidential Election. The use of Bayes' theorem to update previous predictions is discussed. Longevity of mothers of UK and US politicians: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 version broadcast on 27/07/2012. See also Radio 4 Series 26 Episode 3 (27/07/2012). Episode 40 (13/10/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00yx5wn Episode 41 (20/10/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00z57x8 Matching algorithms, kidney exchanges and repugnant markets: An interview with Al Roth about matching algorithms and their implementation in a system of kidney transplant exchanges and repugnant markets. Episode 42 (27/10/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00zfxhw Episode 43 (03/11/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0104h4d Poverty line and measuring poverty: A common method of defining poverty is using a level relative to the median income in a country. However, this means that different countries have different poverty lines and a decrease in a country's median income can actually reduce the number of people living below the poverty line. This issue is discussed with reference to poverty in Australia along with other ways of measuring relative and absolute poverty. See also Radio 4 Series 22 Episode 6 (08/05/2011). Episode 44 (10/11/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0104k1d Nate Silver and predicting the US 2012 Presidential Election outcome: An update on the broadcast of 06/10/2012 is given following the success of Nate Silver's predictions for the 2012 Presidential Election. A discussion with someone from a traditional polling company takes place and the methods used by these companies and "aggregators" such as Nate Silver are compared. See also World Service Episode 39 (06/10/2012). Hurricane Sandy's death toll: A discussion takes place about how the death toll from Hurricane Sandy and other weather events compares with the normal death toll. Are lives saved because people stay inside? Episode 45 (17/11/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p010c45y Chocolate consumption and Nobel Prizes: A study (Messerli, F.H. (2012) "Chocolate consumption, cognitive function, and Nobel laureates", New England Journal of Medicine, 367, 16, pp1562-1564) supposedly showed that those countries which consumed higher amounts of chocolate also won the most Nobel Prizes. The issue of correlation not being the same as causation is discussed. There is an interview where a p-value is explained in layman's language but oversimplified to the extent that it becomes wrong. See also http://deevybee.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/flaky-chocolate-and-new-england-journal.html and http://www.stats.org/stories/2012/Cacao_or_Caca_oct16_12.html. Episode 46 (24/11/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p010n7v5 Fergie time: In English football's Premier League it is often alleged that Manchester United get generous amounts of injury time added on by the referee when they are chasing a goal to draw or win a match. This has been nicknamed "Fergie time" after their manager Alex Ferguson. An examination of whether this is real or not is undertaken, including a discussion of how the examination is carried out. See also Radio 4 Series 27 Episode 1 (23/11/2012). Counting casualties in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: The number of casualties in the latest stage of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was examined following claims made by one side. It emerged that it is hard to determine exactly what being a casualty means. If it is defined as being treated by medical staff then this includes people treated for shock but no physical injuries. The idea of it being easier to count deaths is discussed. See also Radio 4 Series 27 Episode 1 (23/11/2012). Episode 47 (01/12/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p010z9yx Zero and odd and even numbers: The issue of whether zero is an even number is discussed following the Mayor of New York having to say explicitly that it was being treated as even when a scheme for rationing petrol was being introduced. The mathematical properties are discussed. See also Radio 4 Series 27 Episode 3 (07/12/2012). Episode 48 (08/12/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p011cfv5 Morning sickness and the probability of having twins: Following the Duchess of Cambridge's hospitalisation with acute morning sickness, newspaper were speculating that she might be having twins. The association between acute morning sickness and having twins is investigated and the distinction between relative risk and absolute risk is discussed. See also Radio 4 Series 27 Episode 3 (07/12/2012). Episode 49 (15/12/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p011qhpd Describing numbers with words: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 14/12/2012. See also Radio 4 Series 27 Episode 4 (14/12/2012). Episode 50 (22/12/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p012184b Episode 51 (29/12/2012) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p012bp5s Episode 52 (05/01/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p012nt7r Episode 53 (12/01/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0130rfv Episode 54 (19/01/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01361jk Episode 55 (26/01/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p013d1x8 Body Mass Index (BMI) and a possible replacement: The calculation of and uses of the Body Mass Index (BMI) is discussed. It is suggested that for some people, the categorisation of the continuous BMI into underweight, normal, overweight and obese is inappropriate. A possible replacement for the BMI calculation has been suggested and the roots of this suggestion are discussed. Episode 56 (02/02/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p013pckb Episode 57 (09/02/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p013zqpr Small-value coins: It was suggested that the USA should do away with its 1 cent coin but this was met by opposition. One of their arguments was that it would lead to an increase in prices with goods now priced $X.99 being rounded up and that this would damage the economy. An estimate of the percentage change on sales that it would bring about was given. Although the story did not include this calculation, one could look at the combined effect of a reduction in sales and increase in price, contrasting it with the effect on retailers of reducing prices to $X.95. Episode 58 (16/02/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0148ypf Manchester United followers: A survey was done to estimate the number of people in the world that were followers of Manchester United FC. The methodology for this survey was discussed which includes making estimates for countries where no data were collected. Contrasts are made with previous surveys. At one point the survey team representative claims that the margin of error is just 1%. Champions League draw probabilities: For the last-16 draw in the 2012/13 UEFA Champions League, the actual draw ended up being exactly the same as a rehearsal draw that had taken place earlier. The probability of this happening is discussed, given the various restrictions on which teams could be paired together. Episode 59 (23/02/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p014lhp9 Estimating the number of Roman Catholics: The difficulty of estimating the number of Roman Catholics in the world is explored. The various assumptions that need to be made and the estimation methods used are discussed. Episode 60 (02/03/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p014wlnq Episode 61 (09/03/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01568lx Estimating the number of people living with HIV: Estimates of the number of people in the world living with HIV suggested that programmes aimed at preventing the spread of HIV were being successful. However, changes to the way in which the calculations are done might be affecting things. The difficulty of merging different types of data sources are discussed. Episode 62 (16/03/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p015hqn2 Episode 63 (23/03/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p015tb9t Big data: A discussion of what "Big Data" is, where it comes from, what it can be used for and difficulties associated with it. See also Radio 4 Series 29 Episode 1 (30/08/2013) and Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 7 (13/06/2014). Episode 64 (30/03/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0164626 Episode 65 (06/04/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p016tmj7 Communicating risk: Following the conviction in an Italian court of scientists who were judged to have given insufficient warning of the risk of an earthquake in L'Aquila which killed 300 people, the ramifications for the communication of risk are discussed. Episode 66 (13/04/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p016tpsr Episode 67 (20/04/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0173h00 Episode 68 (27/04/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p017cr7s Repeat testing of murder weapon for DNA to increase evidence: An appeal against a murder conviction was upheld, partly because the DNA test that matched blood on the murder weapon to the accused was considered unreliable. The judge decided it was not worth re-testing the DNA because it would be one unreliable test following another. However, it is argued in the programme that, in general, repeated testing can increase the amount of evidence available. Parallels with tossing coins are given. Unexpected events can be expected to happen in large populations: A nurse in the Netherlands was convicted, partly as a result of a probability calculation concerning the chances of her being present at some many deaths or near-deaths. In her trial, evidence was presented which showed she was not present at some of these but the calculation was not redone. Had it been redone, the probability would still have been small but not as extreme. When one subsequently takes into account the number of nurses in the Netherlands then it is likely that at least one nurse would encounter these unusual circumstances without anything untoward being the cause. Episode 69 (04/05/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p017pz1n Episode 70 (11/05/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p017zsfw Episode 71 (18/05/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0188t37 Angelina Jolie's cancer risk: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 17/05/2012. See also Radio 4 Series 28 Episode 3 (17/05/2013). Episode 72 (25/05/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p018lgph Episode 73 (01/06/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p018x24m Episode 74 (08/06/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0196ln9 Statistical stories related to parenthood: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 07/06/2013. See also Radio 4 Series 28 Episode 6 (07/06/2013). Men think about sex every seven seconds: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 07/06/2013. See also Radio 4 Series 28 Episode 6 (07/06/2013). Episode 75 (15/06/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p019k47f Every fifteen seconds a child dies of hunger: This statistic is obtained by dividing the number of seconds in a year by the number of children dying of hunger. It is an easier statistic for people to understand than a large number of deaths. The issues behind the numbers are discussed. Episode 76 (22/06/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p019v1cc Episode 77 (29/06/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01b4nps Life expectancy - world trends and calculation methods: Changes in life expectancy across the world are discussed. How life expectancy is calculated is explained and issues of mean, median and mode are included. Episode 78 (06/07/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01bg6fg Episode 79 (13/07/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01brr8j Sizes of protests in Egypt: Various claims had been made about the size of protests in Egypt. The sources of these claims are investigated and issues about how to count crowds are addressed. Episode 80 (20/07/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01c2m3k Episode 81 (27/07/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01cdg7k Episode 82 (03/08/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01cpcyl Episode 83 (10/08/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01dnm5l Episode 84 (17/08/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01dyvcn Episode 85 (24/08/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01fc5vh Lots of coffee increases the chances of dying (at any given moment): A study concluded that drinking lots of coffee each day increased the chances of dying at any given moment (not simply the chances of dying as reported in some places). This conclusion is explained, including in the discussion issues of relative and absolute risk and uncertainty in trials. Advice on what (not) to eat and drink in pregnancy is looked at, explaining that randomised control trials (RCTs) are not available for these circumstances. Episode 86 (31/08/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01fnz3s Episode 87 (07/09/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01fyvkc Episode 88 (14/09/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01g94yk Episode 89 (21/09/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01gpt6t Episode 90 (28/09/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01h5j4s Episode 91 (05/10/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01hnv98 Episode 92 (12/10/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01j5xb1 Hawthorne effect: A version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 27/09/2013. See also Radio 4 Series 29 Episode 5 (27/09/2013) and Radio 4 Series 11 Episode 1 (23/10/2006). Episode 93 (19/10/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01jns26 Episode 94 (26/10/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01k0kr6 Episode 95 (02/11/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01kdgsw Episode 96 (09/11/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01ksh8m Opinions cloud judgements: People's ability to assess numbers is affected by their own personal beliefs and what they would wish the data to show. They look for something in the data which confirms their belief rather than employing critical evaluation of the evidence. Episode 97 (16/11/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01l9jm8 Episode 98 (23/11/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01lp3yd Personalised medicine: An interview with Terry Speed about the statistical work he has undertaken over the years and the possibilities it has opened up for personalising medicine. Diagnoses can now be made on the basis of comparing patient data with specific knowledge about the biological nature of diseases and conditions. Episode 99 (30/11/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01m367d FIFA rankings: An explanation of how the FIFA international rankings are created is given. It is highlighted that the choice of friendly opponents made by countries can make a difference to their ranking because the points awarded are averaged over all the matches played. Winning against a lowly opponent can lead to a decrease in ranking because few points are awarded but the game counts as another over which the cumulative points are averaged. It is pointed out that for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, the Netherlands would have been one of the top seeds had they not played (and won) a friendly against Indonesia. Countries can thus manipulate their ranking by choice of friendly opponents and by making friendlies not count towards the rankings by having more substitutes than normally allowed. What is not mentioned, but which is the clear lesson to be learned, is that the methodology for creating the rankings is flawed if it allows this sort of thing to happen. Episode 100 (07/12/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01mlxhv Episode 101 (14/12/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01mzmph Episode 102 (21/12/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01n9ft7 Episode 103 (28/12/2013) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01ndgyf Episode 104 (04/01/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01nrgdj Episode 105 (11/01/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01p1742 Episode 106 (18/01/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01pnzhr Episode 107 (25/01/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01q5cfc Alcohol and mouth cancer: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 25/01/2014. See also Radio 4 Series 30 Episode 6 (24/01/2014). Episode 108 (01/02/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01qkfnp Episode 109 (08/02/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01r89yx Episode 110 (15/02/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01ryk69 Episode 111 (22/02/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01sbmjs Neknomination's spread as an epidemic: The spread of the Neknomination drinking game (where people are challenged to video themselves drinking and put it on the internet) is likened to the spread of an epidemic. Rates of "infection" and number of "susceptibles" are discussed. Episode 112 (01/03/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01sqly1 Talent versus practice - the 10,000 hours rule: The "10,000 hours rule" where it is claimed that exceptional ability at anything can be learned by practicing for 10,000 hours rather than by talent is discussed. The lack of statistical rigour in the original academic paper is discussed together with the misinterpretations of that paper which have followed from it. Episode 113 (08/03/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01t399q Episode 114 (15/03/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01tjcwp Episode 115 (22/03/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01v5sqh Using Bayes to find an aeroplane: A description is given of how Bayesian probability methods were used to look for an aeroplane which had crashed into the sea. It includes an example of how the methods can be sensitive to the prior probabilities used and also how it is easy to update analyses when more data is available. See also Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 1 (02/05/2014). Episode 116 (29/03/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01w26gt French people in London: Some estimates of the number of French people living in London make it seem like it could be the 6th largest French city in the world. However, the numbers depend on what definitions and sources are used. An explanation of confidence intervals is included. See also Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 3 (16/05/2014). Episode 117 (01/04/2014, 04/04/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01w8qqm, http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01wd03f Episode 118 (11/04/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01wtd1b Episode 119 (18/04/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01x7n87 Favourite numbers: An international survey of people's favourite numbers gave 7 as the most popular. Although data on the frequency with which each number was chosen is available, ancillary information that was collected has not been and there does not appear to have been any attempt to weight to responses by nationality or anything else. The idea of people considering some numbers to be more "random" than others is also included. Episode 120 (25/04/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01xmswc Episode 121 (04/05/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01y27t9 Episode 122 (09/05/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01ycqg2 Episode 123 (16/05/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01ys3t5 Episode 124 (23/05/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01z6f6p Probability and risk: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 23/05/2014. See also Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 4 (23/05/2014). Episode 125 (30/05/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01zmghb Episode 126 (06/06/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0201hpg Spurious correlations: An alternative version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 23/05/2014. See also Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 4 (23/05/2014). Probabilities in office sweepstakes: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 06/06/2014. See also Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 6 (06/06/2014). Episode 127 (13/06/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p020gkp9 Tossing a coin to help make decisions: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 06/06/2014. See also Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 6 (06/06/2014) and Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 7 (13/06/2014). Birthday paradox: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 13/06/2014. See also Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 7 (13/06/2014). Episode 128 (20/06/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p020wmlx Giving international aid with a randomised controlled trial: A report on a randomised controlled trial where international aid was given at random to some of those in need and not to others. Episode 129 (29/06/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p021f1bd Episode 130 (04/07/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p021q7h2 Episode 131 (11/07/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0224gwp Probability with Willy Wonka's Golden Tickets: An abbreviated version of the Radio 4 broadcast on 16/05/2014. See also Radio 4 Series 31 Episode 3 (16/05/2014). Episode 132 (18/07/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p022m7bg Episode 133 (25/07/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p023276m Episode 134 (01/08/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p023fdxl Clusters of aeroplane crashes: After three aeroplanes crashed in the space of eight days, the chances of observing a cluster like this are investigated. The Poisson distribution is discussed. Episode 135 (10/08/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0244jdt Episode 136 (15/08/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p024dzqm Measuring anti-Semitism: A study that tried to measure the level of anti-Semitism is discussed, including its method of asking a number of questions and then dichotomising the sums if yes and no answers. See also Radio 4 Series 32 Episode 4 (05/09/2014). Episode 137 (22/08/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p024tkm2 Episode 138 (29/08/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0257hwf Episode 139 (05/09/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p025n8bd Episode 140 (12/09/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0262nmk Measuring vocabulary: The Radio 4 version broadcast on 05/09/2014 is broadcast on the World Service. See also Radio 4 Series 32 Episode 4 (05/09/2014). Episode 141 (19/09/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p026j78d Episode 142 (28/09/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02725mf Episode 143 (03/10/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p027d3hd Episode 144 (10/10/2014) URL: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p027tqp4 Measuring reductions in wildlife: WWF and ZSL produced a report which claimed that the number of animals in the wild had reduced by 50% between 1970 and 2010. Two issues with this were identified. Firstly, the 50% figure was the result of averaging percentages so in reality the number of animals had not gone down by 50%. The fictitious example is given of 1970 figures for frogs being 10 and birds 100. If 2010 figures were 2 for frogs (80% reduction) and 80 for birds (20% reduction) then an average of 50% was being claimed when total numbers had reduced from 110 to 82. Secondly, the report had taken surveys of animal numbers from all over the world and weighted them to take account of the amount of the world covered by these surveys. However, concern was expressed that surveys may be more targeted towards threatened populations and thus the weighting applied might not be appropriate. ---- Go back to More Or Less Wiki main page